how to read statistics?

When I publish statistics, here on this page or in social media (Instagram, Facebook, Twitter) it might looks complicated.

So let me explain how to read them…

 

First lets take a look how it is:

first row is a date – kinda obvious.

the rest is most important: data.

You have an instrument like DAX which stands for German Stock Index (Deutscher Aktienindex) – of course it’s for main index, DAX 30.

Period shows how many years of data I gathered, processed and calculated. For our DAX example it’s 23 years, so it’s back up to 1995.

Another column shows direction. So I calculate how often in that specified trading day of current month closing price was higher and how often closing price was lower than open price.

And after calculations I get percentage and direction. This is in second column. So it’s statisticly chance to get such direction. When it’s ~50/60% it’s a low number. But when it’s goes higher, above 70/80%… It’s a strong signal.

Third column says “10-year period” – and it shows data for last ten years. So in 2020 it shows direction calculated from years 2010-2019.

50/50 means that there was exaclty 50% of price moving up as same 50% it was moving down in past. 

 

Does it work?

By my calculations when using those statistics (only them) as a basic strategy You can get around +20-30% on your account per year. But it’s with very conservative capital management focused on strong reduction of losses.

 

How to use statistics? Well, I put some explanations in reports available on this website. When You purchase a full report, You will get two tested ways to use those statistics on markets.